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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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What distinguishes Santos’ penalty is the exchange’s allegation that he actively issued false or misleading statements to alter prices and profited materially, violating additional rules such as failure to cooperate and manipulative conduct.
These breaches escalated his sanction to a permanent ban and a significantly larger fine compared to others involved.
The platform’s Rule 5.17(z), cited in all the matters, strictly prohibits trading in contracts where participants have decision-making power or can otherwise influence the underlying event, regardless of influence magnitude.
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Navarro told Rashid she doubted his claims of rehabilitation, saying she was “very disappointed” and “not sure I believe” he is a changed person.
Navarro noted during Thursday’s hearing that she had not presided over Rashid’s original plea agreement and had previously expressed concern that the deal did not fully reflect the severity of his conduct.
At his 2021 sentencing, she described Rashid’s past behavior as “monstrous” and said his victims endured conditions resembling imprisonment.