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“Just better margins,” he says of that decision. “I think it’s more defendable. It’s the area that fewer people can do well. So I think it’s more defendable margin, more ability to get long-term contracts and beneficial positions.”
Singles can be profitable, but parlay pricing requires the market maker to calculate the correlations between multiple outcomes and respond dynamically to individual requests. It is a skill set built over years in the sharper regions of the existing sports betting ecosystem.
Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.
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The advisory could be music to the ears of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, whose league has pushed a federal derivatives regulator in the US to enact more rigorous standards to help protect the integrity of professional sports. Ahead of the matchup, Goodell spoke with CNBC from Melbourne.
“We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets,” he said. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game – we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms.”
Despite a rapid ascension throughout the US, Kalshi has been relatively mum on potential international expansion down the road. There is some sentiment that Kalshi will wait to build abroad until after the completion of an initial public offering. At present, Kalshi has sought a valuation of around $44 billion.
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But he said he was not concerned. “On the Italian antitrust, we don’t think we are in a risky situation because Italy is not the core of this deal and this doesn’t change the level of concentration in the country and will still be below 40% in each relevant market. So we don’t see that.
“We do not expect revenue attrition. These are complementary brands and complementary models, and we have a history of managing a multi-brand business in Italy, and we already have several brands that run in our business and that are complementary.”
Kyle has been with Clarion since December 2023, joining from the world of sports journalism, subsequently becoming a LatAm-facing senior reporter with iGB.